A daily read on the AI-chip trade: 20 public signals on two axes, mapped by rule. The edge is telling a fundamental break from a crowded unwind while the move is happening, not after someone explains it.
Fundamental impulse (Korean exports, Taiwan supply-chain revenue, DRAM spot, GPU rental rates) asks whether the cycle is intact. Positioning fragility (ETF flows, leveraged exposure, basket co-movement, insider selling) asks whether the market can absorb bad news. Start with the colours in the two middle rows: the more red, the less this sector can take one piece of bad news. Click any card for its two-year history.
Get PickAlpha updates by email – free.
| # | Signal | Axis | Basis | Latest reading | Contribution | 0 ─ 0.5 ─ 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Korea Semiconductor Exports | X | momentum percentile (same window class) | +60.6pp | 0.96 | |
| 02 | Taiwan Supply-Chain Revenue | X | momentum percentile | +20.9pp | 1.00 | |
| 03 | DRAM Spot Price | X | momentum percentile | +8.4% | 0.68 | |
| 04 | GPU Rental Price | X | momentum percentile | +6.5% | 0.89 | |
| 06 | Semiconductor ETF Flows | Y | level percentile → 1−p | -$1.54B | 0.92 | |
| 07 | Leveraged ETF Rebalance Pressure | Y | ÷ turnover · reference 2.0 | 1.83% of basket ADV | 0.91 | |
| 08 | Short Volume Ratio | Y | level percentile | 44.8% | 0.61 | |
| 09 | Basket Co-movement | Y | level percentile | 0.53 | 0.88 | |
| 10 | Insider Net Selling | Y | ÷ turnover · reference 0.5 | 0.3795% of basket ADV | 0.76 |
Whether the AI-chip cycle is still intact, and whether the trade is crowded enough that one piece of bad news becomes a sector-wide fall. Basket: NVDA · AVGO · AMD · TSM · MU · ASML · AMAT · LRCX · KLAC · MRVL · SNDK · SK hynix (ADR).
| # | Signal | What it is | How to read it | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Background · Macro backdrop | |||||
| M1 | S&P 500 | Daily close of the S&P 500, the US large-cap benchmark | The backdrop for everyone's risk appetite; every judgment about semis is made on top of it | FRED (Federal Reserve) | Daily |
| M2 | Nasdaq-100 | Daily close of the Nasdaq-100, the index QQQ tracks | The water level for large-cap tech; read it against R2's SMH/QQQ ratio | FRED (Federal Reserve) | Daily |
| M3 | US 10Y Yield | Nominal yield on the 10-year Treasury – the discount rate underneath every risk asset | Rising yields compress high-multiple growth | US Treasury (via FRED) | Daily |
| M4 | Gold | COMEX gold futures, continuous contract, USD per ounce | A thermometer for hedging demand and liquidity; gold up with equities = plentiful cash, gold up while equities fall = flight to safety | COMEX | Daily |
| M5 | WTI Crude | NYMEX WTI crude futures, continuous contract, USD per barrel | A crossing read on inflation and global demand; range-bound = no new pressure on rates | NYMEX | Daily |
| Core · Semiconductor fundamental impulse | |||||
| 01 | Korea Semiconductor Exports | Korean customs' semiconductor export value for each 10-day period, released on the 11th and the 21st, with the official year-on-year | The fastest official hard data in the cycle, 1–2 months ahead of vendor results; two weak prints in a row = the first fundamental alarm | Korea Customs Service | 10-day |
| 02 | Taiwan Supply-Chain Revenue | Combined monthly revenue of seven listed Taiwanese companies – TSMC, MediaTek, ASE, GUC, Alchip, Quanta, Wiwynn – in USD at the month's average daily rate | Whether orders actually became revenue, known 2–4 weeks before the quarterly reports | TWSE MOPS + FRED (FX) | Monthly |
| 03 | DRAM Spot Price | Session average spot price for DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 chips | The most sensitive thermometer for memory supply and demand; spot leads contract, and a peak usually precedes memory earnings downgrades | TrendForce DRAMeXchange | Daily |
| 04 | GPU Rental Price | Median on-demand H100 rate (USD per GPU-hour), with 1-year and 3-year reserved discounts alongside | The first place the compute-glut story has to appear: if supply really exceeds demand, the price falls first | Public GPU-cloud price lists | Weekly |
| 05 | EPS Revision Breadth | Share of analyst actions over the past 30 days that raised basket EPS, as a percentage of raises plus cuts (50% is neutral) | Whether the fundamental story is confirmed at the company level: above 50% = strengthening, below 50% = estimates being cut | Sell-side consensus | Daily |
| Core · Positioning fragility | |||||
| 06 | Semiconductor ETF Flows | Weekly net creations and redemptions in SMH (share change × NAV), as a four-week rolling total | The main gate for retail and allocator money; sustained outflows = crowding unwinding, a return to inflows = a necessary condition for the all-clear | Issuer disclosure | Weekly |
| 07 | Leveraged ETF Notional | SOXL + SOXS assets × 3× leverage combined (a floor on notional exposure) | A mechanical amplifier: the larger the exposure, the heavier the forced selling into a sharp close | Issuer disclosure | Daily |
| 08 | Short Volume Ratio | Short volume as a share of total volume across the basket, 20-day average | The temperature of hedging and shorting activity (includes market-maker hedges, so not net shorts); a spike that fades = pressure being released | FINRA | Daily |
| 09 | Basket Co-movement | How closely the basket's names move together once the market's influence is removed (0 to 1) | How far the whole basket trades as a single stock; the higher it reads, the more one piece of bad news becomes a sector-wide fall | Computed from EOD prices | Daily |
| 10 | Insider Net Selling | Monthly net selling reported to the SEC by officers and directors of basket companies, with pre-arranged plans excluded | What the best-informed people are doing; heavy selling near highs often precedes drawdowns, and selling into weakness is worse | SEC EDGAR | Monthly |
| Background · External gauges (third-party) | |||||
| R1 | CNN Fear & Greed | CNN's market sentiment index (0–100), composed from seven inputs | The street's sentiment thermometer; greed plus a positioning warning here = the most dangerous combination | CNN | Daily |
| R2 | SMH / QQQ Ratio | Semiconductor ETF close divided by Nasdaq-100 ETF close | Whether semis are beating or lagging large-cap tech; the ratio usually peaks before the absolute price does | Computed from EOD prices | Daily |
| R3 | Nasdaq-100 Volatility (VXN) | The Cboe VXN index – the volatility the options market prices into the Nasdaq-100 | How uneasy the market is about tech; a spike that fades without returning to calm = not over yet | Cboe (via FRED) | Daily |
| R4 | Futures Speculative Positioning | CFTC TFF: leveraged funds' net position in Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures as a share of open interest | How crowded fast money is in the futures: read the level within history and the direction of change, never the sign as a directional view (it contains basis trades hedging cash longs) | CFTC | Weekly |
| R5 | Nasdaq-100 RSI (14d) | Wilder's relative strength index, 14-day window, computed from the Nasdaq-100 daily close | Momentum heat: ≥70 overbought, ≤30 oversold; it blunts in strong trends and only matters alongside the positioning row | Computed in-house | Daily |
① No new evidence, no change of view. ② An old conclusion is only ever explicitly maintained, strengthened, weakened or withdrawn – never quietly rewritten; every version of the reading keeps a historical snapshot, so what we said at the time can be checked afterwards. ③ Facts, inferences and investment implications are stated separately.
Feedback
Tell us what you'd like to see, what needs explaining, or what's wrong with this page.
Leaving your email does not subscribe you to anything.